Are The Polls Missing These Trump Voters?

The polls show Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump.

But do they tell the whole story?

Some believe there is a hidden “Trump vote” that isn’t showing up in the polls, but will materialize on Election Day.

In the 1982 California gubernatorial election, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley – who is African American – consistently led his Republican opponent in the polls.

But on Election Day, he suffered a stunning defeat.

This became known as the “Bradley Effect”; where respondents told pollsters they supported a socially desirable outcome despite having no intention of voting that way.

Now one former Bradley campaign worker believes he sees the same story playing out with Donald Trump.

Breitbart reports:

“Emerson College Professor Gregory Payne tells Breitbart News that after witnessing the actual Bradley Effect while working on that campaign, he sees the same phenomenon in the 2016 with voters reluctant to tell pollsters they support GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump…

 

…The professor, who has published on the subject of polling in Behavioral Science magazine and has worked with Emerson’s own Emerson College Polling Society, said the social pressure against supporting Trump is very strong.

 

“I think with Trump, what you have is you have the opposite,” he said. “Many people are saying to maybe their friends while they’re having a sip of Chardonnay in Washington or Boston, ‘Oh, I would never vote for him, he’s so – not politically correct,’ or whatever, but then they’re going to go and vote for him. Because he’s saying things that they would like to say, but they’re not politically courageous enough to say it and I think that’s the real question in this election.”

 

There is no denying that Trump has tapped into a real concerns of voters, said the professor, who wrote speeches for Bradley and authored the biography: Tom Bradley: The Impossible Dream.

 

“Trump is kind of a combination of the gun referendum, because he’s an emotional energy source for people who want to make sure that they’re voicing their concerns about all these issues – immigration, et cetera – but then I think there’s this other piece. They don’t find it to be correct or acceptable to a lot of their friends, but when push comes to shove, they’re going to vote for him.”

The Trump campaign is also publically saying this may be the case.

New campaign manager Kellyanne Conway – who is a professional pollster – also made similar claims.

Mediaite reports her saying in an interview:

“Donald Trump performs consistently better in online polling where a human being is not talking to another human being about what he or she may do in the election,” she argued.

 

“It’s because it’s become socially desirable, if you’re a college educated person in the United States of America, to say that you’re against Donald Trump.”

 

“The hidden Trump vote in this country is a very significant proposition,” she insisted.

 

“Have you been able to put a number on that?” asked the Channel 4 interviewer.

 

“Yes,” Conway responded confidently.

 

“What do you think that is?”

 

“I can’t discuss it,” she said. “It’s a project we’re doing internally. I call it the undercover Trump voter, but it’s real.”

But is it real?

Polls during the primaries were accurate.

Trump’s vote almost always ended up within a couple of points of his final standing in the Real Clear Politics polling average.

And conservatives who believed the polls were “skewed” during the 2012 election were shocked when Obama comfortably defeated Mitt Romney.

Republicans should not delude themselves.

Pollsters have their professional reputations to protect and the polls are an honest representation of their work.

Trump is losing and there is likely not a “secret vote” which is not being picked up on by the polls.

Trump’s campaign team change and message shift provides a better hope for victory than believing the polls are wrong.