Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers are dropping and Donald Trump is gaining ground.
That has been the dominant story of the campaign since the traditional Labor Day kickoff.
But the voters who could cost Hillary Clinton the election may not be who you think they are.
Many pundits have already noted that Hillary is badly trailing Trump with men and working class voters.
While this is true, the real story why Hillary is falling behind Trump – and in key battleground states – is because the key demographics in the coalition who elected Obama are refusing to support Hillary.
Some pundits claimed the Latino vote put Obama over the top in 2012, but Hillary is running far behind Obama’s 2012 numbers.
Share of the Hispanic vote: 2012 vs. 2016 pic.twitter.com/hAFNTvR94q
— Morning Joe (@Morning_Joe) September 15, 2016
Some argue Obama won Colorado, Florida, and Nevada because of his performance with Latino voters.
Others have claimed Arizona could turn blue because the state’s Hispanic population could revolt against Trump’s strong policy proposals to stop illegal immigration.
But Hillary is also having trouble attracting millennial voters.
While Americans between the ages of 18-35 may not like Donald Trump, they are also apathetic to Hillary.
The website FiveThirtyEight.com noted that when third party candidates are included in the polls, the biggest drop in Hillary’s support is with younger voters.
Because Trump now leads in key battleground states like Iowa, Florida and Ohio, Hillary is hitting the reset button on her campaign.
This includes a speech specifically targeted to young voters, as well as deploying fellow senior citizens Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren to try to rouse the younger voters who view Hillary as a Wall Street sell out and a reminder of a yesterday’s politics.
The Wall Street Journal reports on her collapsing numbers with millennial voters:
The outreach comes as polls show younger voters moving away from Mrs. Clinton. Among those under age 35, Mrs. Clinton’s lead over Republican presidential rival Donald Trump fell from 24 points in late August to just 5 points this month in Quinnipiac surveys.
That was one reason her overall lead among likely voters fell from 7 points to 2 points.
Similarly, Mrs. Clinton bested Mr. Trump by 27 points among voters under 35 in a Fox News survey in early August. That lead fell to 9 points in a new Fox News survey.
The trend is appearing in some state-level surveys, as well: In a new poll of Michigan voters, Mrs. Clinton’s 24-point lead among young voters a month ago fell to 7 points. That change helped account for why her 11-point lead among voters overall fell to 3 points in the survey, conducted for the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ.
Gary Johnson, the libertarian candidate, is picking up many of the young voters who had backed Mrs. Clinton. In the Quinnipiac poll, he drew a significant 29% of likely voters under age 35, up from 16% in August. He trailed Mrs. Clinton by only 2 percentage points among those voters, a sign of how potentially damaging he could be to her campaign.