This Statistical Model Says One Candidate Winning Is A Virtual Certainty

There is one statistical model that has predicted the winner of every Presidential election since 1996.

And this year it says there is a virtual certainty one candidate will win the election.

But it isn’t who everyone thinks.

Helmut Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University who earned his Ph.D. at the University of Michigan, developed the Primary Model in 1996.

The model is based on primary election results, which party runs the White House, if a party is coming off a two-term Presidency and how the incumbent performed in their re-election.

Currently, his model predicts Donald Trump has an 87% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton in the election.

The Primary Model projects Trump would win a 52% vote share in a two-way race.

Writing in The Hill, Norpoth explains his forecast:

“In 2016, Hillary Clinton was such a candidate with her support from African-Americans.  So to assess primary performance in 2016, I also included the second primary, the one in South Carolina, where African-Americans make up a large portion of the Democratic electorate.

 

For the record, Clinton lost in New Hampshire and then won in South Carolina. On the Republican side, Donald Trump won both.

 

According to the standard metric of the model, which calculates primary performance of a candidate as a percentage of votes cast for the top two finishers in a primary, Trump wound up with a higher average based on the returns from New Hampshire and South Carolina than did Clinton. Trump’s superior primary performance bodes well for a victory over Clinton in November.

 

In addition to primaries, the swing of the electoral pendulum generates predictive power. Even a casual observer of presidential elections may have noticed a distinct pattern: the party in the White House wins re-election after one term almost all the time, but much more rarely after two terms. In fact, during the last 65 years, the party in power has managed to win three terms in a row only once: in 1988.

 

Over the long haul since 1828, according to my statistical estimates, the White House party has averaged 2.6 terms in office. A third term is not out of the question, but not very certain either.

 

It depends on how well the White House party did in winning a second term compared to its winning the first term. Doing better in the re-election makes a third term more likely; doing worse makes change more likely.

 

To return to the 1988 case, Ronald Reagan defeated President Carter in 1980 by about 10 points and then won re-election in 1984 by nearly double that margin. The Reagan revolution was still churning, which was good news for George H.W. Bush, the GOP nominee in 1988.

 

In contrast, Obama won re-election in 2012 with a margin half the size of his win in 2008. The appeal of “Hope and Change” was wearing off. Bad news for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

 

So from the start, Republicans could count on the swing of the electoral pendulum to recapture the White House in 2016. With his superior showing in early primaries Donald Trump markedly raised the chances of victory in November. The prediction formula of my model, based on elections from 1912 to 2012, gives Trump 52.5 percent of the two-party vote, making it all but certain (87 out of 100) that he will be the next President.

 

The forecast, to be sure, is about the popular vote, not the vote in the Electoral College. But with a 5-point popular-vote lead it is virtually impossible to lose out in the electoral tally.”

Many pundits laughed off the Primary Model as it continually predicted Trump would win the election despite his campaign sinking in the polls over the summer months.

But Trump corrected his campaign by bringing in new leadership and focusing his message on Hillary Clinton.

And the campaign dynamics have shifted in his favor.

The polls show a two-point race in both head-to-head and four-way ballot tests.

Swing state polls have also moved in Trump’s favor.

Real Clear Politics finds Trump has taken the lead in Iowa and Florida.

Do you agree with the Primary Model’s forecast that Trump will win the election?

Let us know what you think in the comment section.

  • DDS333

    I certainly hope it is correct. While I may not agree with everything Trump says or does I believe the election of Hillary Clinton would be a train wreck for this country. We can do no worse than what we have in office now and who knows…an outsider business man may be just what is needed to at least turn this mess around to a more positive future outlook.

    • Sandee !

      I agree, But I believe Trump is truly needed and a welcoming healing to our nation !!

    • Thomas Adams

      I see this. If Trump wins and he is still a disappointment to many of the so called never-Triumpers that held their nose to make the vote they can at least put up a candidate to oppose him and if he is really that bad he can be defeated in the next primary. If Hillary wins then you can kiss the country as we know it good bye because the place will be so flooded with muslims and mexicans that you will never know your own country. If TRump wins at least our country will still be intact in 4 and 8 years. My guess it will be back on track that Obama screwed up.

  • Stephen Howe

    Very sad that these hopeless, useless third & fourth “party” candidates will dilute the electorate, or Trump would be up by 15%!

    The think any patriotic (no, it’s not a four-letter word), but misguided conservative toying with such a “protest vote” because they don’t think Donald is politically correct enough to be “presidential” should realize that they’ll simply be casting their vote for Hillary, along with the BLM terrorists & Illegals.

    • Arimathean

      When the two major parties nominate candidates as unworthy of our votes as Clinton and Trump, rational, patriotic Americans MUST say NO to both.

      I was a life-long Republican until the GOP nominated Trump. Now I’m supporting Gary Johnson – the only real Republican on the ballot. But if I had to choose between Clinton and Trump, I would choose Clinton as the lesser evil.

      • Louise Adams

        Clinton is probably the most evil person on
        the planet, check it out throughly and you
        will see she is even worse than Obama!
        All of the information on Hitlery’s criminal acts and transgressions is out there and yet, democraps fail to see it or, worse yet, don’t care if she’s a crook. I guess that they fail to see how they are going to destroy the country and have to live in a totalitarian dictatorship.
        The Clintons are powerful and without a doubt have “hit men”. Frankly, I think many who have information on her are afraid of having a “sudden” heart attack, or maybe even get “suicided”. I know I would be. Which is a very sad state of affairs.
        With the Clintons’ history of dead bodies surrounding their past, it is no wonder there is nobody willing to talk!! They don’t want to wind up dead!!!!

        Democrats today consider any criticism to be the result of low political motivation—i.e. it’s all made up, false, or morally wrong. It’s rather exhausting, their tedious repetitions of how everyone who disagrees with them is prejudiced, and how they constantly excuse criminal behavior. Illegal immigrants, for example, have not only broken immigration laws, but they pay no taxes, hence are guilty of tax evasion. If any citizen wantonly evaded paying taxes for years, they’d be in jail. Problems can’t be addressed, any more. It seems the nation is getting dumb and dumber.

        Wow, is this the new American the left have been advocating for? How does a known criminal walk free AND can run for POTUS.
        This doesn’t make sense, yet people of their own free will, will VOTE for more of the corruption that has plagued the United States of America? Yes, it’s working, the evil will destroy what was built and a nation divided will fall. So in essence the left wishes for destruction of their own country, smells putrid, like sulfur burning.
        If Mr Trump isnt elected, we are guaranteed to have a revolution, oh, wait, never mind the left is promising free shit.

        • Arimathean

          I am fully aware of how horrible Hillary Clinton is. But she is nowhere near being “the most evil person on the planet.” The two most evil people on the planet are Vladimir Putin and George Soros. Putin is Trump’s buddy and supporter. He has his hooks in both Trump and Clinton and will be able to manipulate either – but he clearly prefers Trump.

          I actually expect Hillary to be an improvement over Obama, who was essentially a Soros surrogate.

          • Louise Adams

            Yes I agree they are both evil but not more than Hillary if anything they could be equally evil but if you have checked out everything Hillary has done over the years it would be equal, Trump is not buddies with Putin he did say it would be nice if we could
            get along with Russia instead of going to war with them I agree on that but that doesn’t make him a buddie.
            George Soros is a Clinton supporter and has donated lots to her campaign.
            George Soros is backing Hillary with $25 million
            POSTED AT 3:01 PM ON JULY 27, 2016 BY JOHN SEXTON

            Share on Facebook 668 668 SHARES
            Left-wing billionaire George Soros is once again opening his wallet to help Democrats win an election. It didn’t work out so well for Soros when he dumped $27 million into the 2004 election to defeat George W. Bush. Since then Soros has reportedly held back on going all in but, as Politico reports, that is changing in 2016:

            People close to Soros say he seems more politically engaged than he’s been in years, motivated they say by a combination of faith in Clinton and fear of her GOP rival Donald Trump, who Soros has accused of “doing the work of ISIS” by stoking fears.
            Eventually Politico gets to a list of Soros’ donations:

            Through the end of June, Soros had donated $7 million to a super PAC supporting Clinton called Priorities USA Action, according to FEC filings, making it the biggest recipient of his political largesse this cycle. And three Democratic operatives say he’s considering donating another $3 million to the group.

            FEC records also show Soros gave $2 million to American Bridge 21st Century, an opposition research super PAC that has been targeting Trump and other Republican candidates, and $700,000 to an assortment of Democratic party committees, PACs and campaigns, including Clinton’s.
            American Bridge is the SuperPAC founded by Clinton crony David Brock, who also runs Media Matters. In addition, Soros is reportedly giving $5 million to a Latino voter outreach group called Immigrant Voters Win and $5 million to the Voting Rights Trust, a group that fights in court against state laws requiring ID to vote. That latter commitment is one Soros made more than a year ago according to the NY Times.

            The story notes the irony of Soros, who opposes Citizens United because it allows too much big money in politics, spending big money supporting Hillary. A source close to Soros says he once called it ‘odious’ that billionaires like himself had so much influence and cited that feeling as a reason to pull back on giving after 2004.

          • Arimathean

            Because Trump never repays his loans in full, American banks will no longer lend him money without collateral. Most of his investment funds for the past decade have been coming from Russian oligarchs – Putin’s buddies. This gives Putin leverage over him.

          • Louise Adams

            I don’t know about the loan situation I will
            have to research do you have any facts on that?
            Anyway myself and all my family and friends will be voting Trump I actually do
            not know or have not met anyone here that
            is for Hillary as of now.
            We only have 2 choices and I can’t comprehend anyone voting Hillary she
            will destroy the country so I know Trump is
            not perfect but for us we will take our chances with him because we know what Hillary has done for the last 30 years!

          • Arimathean

            The notion that we only have two choices is simply not true. By accepting this untruth, you are granting the corrupt establishments of the Democratic and Republican Parties the authority to choose our leaders for us. They are serving up crap, and as long as we keep eating this crap, they will keep serving it. The time has come to say NO to the corrupt party establishments.

          • Louise Adams

            No it is true there is only 2 choices because
            Gary Johnson or Jill Stines or whatever her name is do not stand a chance so voting for either one of them is just wasting your vote!
            As for me and my family and friends we will stand with Trump and pray he gets it!
            My personal opinion is that he will win but
            none of us are psychic so I guess we wait and see!

          • Arimathean

            If Gary Johnson is permitted to participate in the debates, he will beat Trump. Johnson is already leading among college students and military personnel.

            The question of whether Trump or Clinton is the lesser evil is irrelevant to me. When both are absolutely unacceptable, their relative acceptability doesn’t enter consideration. Neither Trump nor Clinton would reverse the course that Obama has set – they both want to use the massive power that Obama has centralized in the Presidency. Neither would restore the authority of the Constitution, the Congress, or the states. Only Gary Johnson would even try to do those things.

          • Louise Adams

            I totally disagree along with thousands of
            other Trump supporters but you are also
            entititled to your opinion myself I do not have a good opinion of Gary Johnson.
            The best to you and have a good day!

          • rosalindr

            Listen to what Gary Johnson says and not what others say about him. Trump is giving you platitudes. Johnson gives you realities.

            Republicans are afraid to let Gary Johnson debate because he knows what he’s talking about, which Trump doesn’t. You like what Trump is saying because it’s what you want to hear, but he can’t do what he’s promising because he doesn’t know how. He’s a performer and a con-man and he has been getting away with it for years.

          • Louise Adams

            No the reason he is not able to debate is because he doesn’t have enough supporters he has to have at least 15% I think that was the number they gave, I doubt he will get to that.

          • rosalindr

            Trump is a loose cannon. He has no political experience except financing mostly Democrats. His business experience has been mixed, with more losses than gains, but he passes those on to his investors like Trump University. He’s a joke, and worse than Hillary. But I wouldn’t vote for her either.

            That’s why I’m voting for two-term Republican Governor of New Mexico, Gary Johnson, and two-term Republican Governor of Massachusetts, Bill Weld. These guys are the real deal. Trump is a con man and a TV Star, not Presidential material.

          • Mary Xiques

            Split the vote!!! it will be Hillary!

          • Arimathean

            Good! She’s not as bad as Trump.

          • Louise Adams

            No one is as bad as Hillary period,that is
            easily proved by researching what she has done for the last 30 years!

          • Arimathean

            A short list of people worse than Hillary Clinton:
            Vladimir Putin
            George Soros
            Barack Obama
            Eric Holder
            Donald Trump

          • Louise Adams

            None of them are worse than Hillary,
            Some are equal!

          • Mary Xiques

            So is Hillary!!

            Want more Muslim Immigrants Hillary has proposed MANY more!

          • Arimathean

            Muslim (and Catholic) immigrants generally oppose the radical secularist agenda of the American left.

      • Mary Xiques

        Shame on you!

      • Mary Xiques

        Reasons to vote FOR Trump:

        Reasons to Support Trump

        • He supports lower taxes

        • He supports creating jobs (not government jobs)

        • He supports the military and would rebuild it

        • He supports the Office of the Presidency

        • He supports penalties for relocating industries away from the US

        • He supports the Second Amendment

        • He supports the execution of our Immigration laws – too Immigrants coming in – Cost of Housing/Feeding

        • He is against Common Core Education

        He respects the Military as well as the Police

        • Mary Xiques

          More reasons:

          1. Trump believes in American exceptionalism.

          2. Trump is tough, unafraid to flex America’s muscles, and has the backbone America needs to take on the evil growing around the world.

          3. Trump is an experienced and tough dealmaker.

          4. Trump is not politically correct; he’s not afraid to say what he believes and has ignited an honest debate.

          5. Trump demands high performance and will fire anyone that doesn’t meet his high standards.

          6. Trump is committed to education.

          7. Trump “built that business” and many more and will run America like a business.

          8. Trump will not balance his job as President with golf and other social events.

          9. Trump’s loyalty will be only to America and Americans—not any political party, special interest group or foreign entity.

          10. Trump will support American laws, the Constitution, and the nation’s borders.

          Trump gets it.

          • Arimathean

            Trump, like any con man, knows how to trick people by telling them what they want to hear. He has made his billions by conning easy marks like you.

          • Louise Adams

            You are 100% right Trump is the only one
            that can get anything done but Hillary is all
            set to cheat like they did in 2012 so I think
            unless they monitor the elections totally she
            could very well accomplish that,she is very
            corrupt and she is very evil and she knows
            how to cheat and lie she’s been doing it for
            more than 30 years now and has got away with it the fact that she’s not in jail proves that!

        • Arimathean

          Anyone who believes a word that comes out of Trump’s mouth is a fool. He is a professional con man who will say anything to close the deal. He even admits as much if you just pay attention. Nothing he says constitutes an actual commitment – it’s all just a series of negotiating ploys.

          His advocacy of conservative positions only goes back about a year. Before that, he was a lifelong progressive. He supported his good friends Bill and Hillary Clinton, as well as Pelosi and Schumer. He called Mitt Romney’s self-deportation plan “harsh”. He said his liberal sister would make a good Supreme Court justice.

        • rosalindr

          Gary Johnson’s positions are the same for most of the items on this list. The difference is Johnson can get them done. Trump is just spouting hot air.

    • Louise Adams

      EXACTLY third party candidates is so stupid
      it’s wasted votes it is impossible for them to
      win they never have and never will so they need
      to stop trying to convince people it’s possible!
      Anyone voting for them needs to stop and think
      before making such a stupid choice do some
      research it can’t happen!

      • Arimathean

        Abraham Lincoln won the Presidency as a third-party candidate. The Whig Party was dying, and the Republicans were competing with the Know-Nothings to replace them. (Trump’s supporters have more in common with the Know-Nothings than with the original Republicans.)

        • Louise Adams

          I typed this in on google and this was the answer:
          Has a third party ever won an election for president

          This may be because those parties are most representative of the population, or it may be because people fear throwing their votes away on a candidate who can’t win. Either way, no third-party candidate has ever won a presidential election.

          Even if Google is wrong and what you say is true still it would be less than a 1% chance and in my opinion still wasting a vote!
          I believe Trump supporters in general are
          much smarter than Clinton supporters and
          there is a lot more Trump supporters than
          Clinton supporters all you have to do is look
          at the amount of people at the rallies and they can’t even all get in!

          • eaglevision

            Well, and truly stated, Louise.

          • JerryB1020

            Don’t forget that there are a lot more Democrats than Republicans plus the reality that Democrats are far more likely to find ways to have dead people vote and live people vote ‘early and often.’ We MUST get all Republicans out to vote.

          • Louise Adams

            Yes you are right and we all know they are planning to cheat in this election I am making sure all my family gets out to vote and am trying to make sure of that with friends also!

      • Allen Wood

        But in this instance, they are taking votes away from Hillary instead of Trump. Go third (and fourth) parties!

        • Louise Adams

          I don’t know not so sure about that,
          Please explain.

          • Allen Wood

            Polls are showing that in the 4-way race, Trump does better than in the 2-way match-up; which means that the votes for the minor party candidates are being taken from Hillary.

          • Louise Adams

            Ok, Thanks

    • Joe Palooka

      You want them in you chowderhead as both Gary Johnson and Jill Stein pull votes from Hillary not Trump. And we need to eliminate ALL political parties as they do nothing but screw things up and the founders hated them.

  • Rotten Doodoo

    From your lips to God’s ears.

  • David Stewart

    If Trump can just keep that rude New York mouth under control……

    • Stephen Howe

      Hillary’s screeching mouth is from NY also, albeit from her “adopted” state.

      Frankly I’m sick & tired of all these mealy-mouthed, wishy-washy, PC, apologist RINOs (the ones featured on Hillary’s TV ad, like Mittens, the White Obama), and almost long for a “loud-mouth” president who isn’t afraid to say what’s on his mind. It’s time for another Roosevelt in the White House… er…that would be Teddy!

      • Louise Adams

        EXACTLY!

  • Michael Skowronski

    Donald Trump is a very brave man, really…he is risking his life running for the presidency and then if he gets into office they will probably perform a JKF procedure on him. Seriously folks…STOP LOOKING FOR THE PRESIDENT TO SAVE THIS COUNTRY…It is NOT going to happen. YOU HAVE TO CHANGE. You have to get in touch with reality. You have to learn the truth and that is very difficult to do with ALL THE LIES going around. But it must be done if you want a better life for future generations. If you change, in mass, the country will change…if you don’t change…MANY, a VAST MAJORITY will DIE. WWIII is on its way. ONLY YOU CAN STOP it…NOT DONALD TRUMP. Put your heart and mind in the right place and the path will become clear.

    • eaglevision

      Put God back in the pilot’s seat, instead of the ungodly administration currently in place. It is dependent upon what born again believers in Jesus Christ do. God never changes, He always backs those who are faithful to Him.

      2Ch 7:14 if My people, who are called by My name, shall humble themselves and pray, and seek My face, and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from Heaven and will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
      2Ch 7:15 Now My eyes shall be open, and My ears shall be open to the prayer of this place.

    • Sandee !

      I agree that Donald is a brave Man indeed, He is also a truthful Man, I don’t look for him to save our country, But I know he was sent from GOD to help bring us back to him !!!!

      • Louise Adams

        EXACTLY!

  • PATRICIA MEAD

    I believe the polls are 100% rigged to cause people to think Clinton is ahead or tied with Trump. The reason for this is to make people actually think Clinton won when they rig the Nov. election in her favor. I believe Trump is way ahead. Go trump-Pence !!

    • Louise Adams

      Agree 100%

  • jhforsythe

    We pray that this poll is correct, and that Donald Trump will be our next president!

    • Louise Adams

      My prayers also!

  • Grams Allan

    Well, my prediction will come true, but yours won’t. I haven’t been wrong about who will be our new POTUS in 50 years.

  • David Jernigan

    I hope Trump wins the Election, because Obama has put America in the toilet and Hillary will definitely poll the handle. That being said, I am afraid Trump will not be our next president either. You see, if Hillary is indicted, she will be automatically out of the race, same if her health fails to the point that she cannot compete. If this happens, it is up to Obama to select a new suitable Candidate in which he can take as long in doing so as he pleases, indefinitely, making him the only president in History to remain in Power for as long as he wishes. If Hillary runs and wins, then becomes indicted, the same situation prevails, leaving Obama in the White House. If all goes well and Trump wins the Election which is my hopes, it is my belief he will be assassinated by some of these crazy Trump haters, or by some of the secret ops people working under Hillary’s command. Take a look at all the mysterious deaths surrounding the witnesses coming forward to testify against Hillary in the past few months. Suicides???? I don’t think so. She is dirty and deceptive, and will stop at nothing to secure a victory over Trump.

  • jim jones

    Trump/Pence, America’s choice for a great future!

  • Arch Stanton

    OMG! What are the clinton people to do if they don’t win the WH, get the power…..AND the money they would make selling influence as well as not having ANY office available to them in the Trump administration for the next 8 years?