All the polls in 2020 show Joe Biden in the lead.
Some pollsters and election forecasters believe Biden is on the verge of a historic landslide victory.
But Joe Biden got some bad news about how all the polls in 2020 are wrong.
The University of Southern California runs panel tracking polls every election.
That means they survey the same group of voters over time.
Their latest poll found Joe Biden up 10 points.
But the pollsters were not satisfied and wanted to test if there was a “shy Trump vote” that was afraid to tell pollsters their true intentions.
In 2020, Americans supporting Donald Trump or backing the police can get you fired.
A recent Pew Research poll found over 60 percent of Americans were afraid to share their political views publicly with the vast majority of that group being conservatives.
So USC set out to measure this phenomenon.
“From our previous research on social judgments, we learned that people seem to know their immediate social circles quite well. Their answers about the distribution of income, health status — even the relationship satisfaction of their friends, family and acquaintances — were often in the right ballpark. And when we averaged the data from their responses across a large national sample, it provided a surprisingly accurate picture of the overall population,” the USC researchers wrote.
In their polling, they also ask “social desirability” questions about if their friends and family intended to vote for Donald Trump using the reasoning that people know who their friends and family are voting for.
USC found this produced a more accurate result in every election they tried it in – including the 2016 Presidential Election and the 2018 midterm election – than just asking who the voter intended to support.
They wrote that “in all five of the elections in which we tested this question, the social circle question predicted election outcomes better than traditional questions about voters’ own intentions. These five elections were the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, the 2017 French Presidential election, the 2017 Dutch Parliamentary election, the 2018 Swedish Parliamentary election, and the 2018 U.S. election for House of Representatives.”
USC also noted that this social circle question accurately predicted which candidate would win each state in the 2016 election.
“In both the U.S. elections, the social-circle question predicted national and state level results better than the ‘own intention’ question in the same polls. In fact, data from the social-circle question in 2016 accurately predicted which candidate won each state, so it predicted Trump’s electoral college victory,” the USC pollsters added.
USC concluded that their most recent poll results including the social desirability questions found that Donald Trump had enough support to win another Electoral College victory.
“When we calculate how many electoral votes each candidate could get based on state level averages of the own-intention and social-circle questions, it’s looking like an Electoral College loss for Biden.”
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