The conventional wisdom in Washington is not if Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump, but if Biden will win by a large enough margin to sweep Democrats into power in the Senate.
This confidence is based on the fact that all available public polling shows Joe Biden with a significant lead.
But polls have been wrong before and Mike Pence said seven words about the polls that made everyone think twice.
Vice President Mike Pence sat for an interview on Air Force 2 with Breitbart news.
Inevitably the subject of the polls came up.
Currently the Real Clear Politics polling average shows Joe Biden leading President Trump by 8.6 percent in the national polls.
Vice President Pence waived off the deficit telling Breitbart that he thinks the polls and the methodology behind them are broken.
“I think polling is broken in America,” Vice President Pence told Breitbart. “I didn’t believe the polls in 2016, and I don’t believe the polls in 2020.”
The Vice President told Breitbart how in 2016 the fake news media threw all of the polls in the Trump campaign’s face to tell them their cause was lost and the campaign hopeless.
“Pence recalled an interview with MSNBC’s Chuck Todd in 2016 when he listed recent polls showing them losing against Hillary Clinton. In response, he told Todd that Trump was going to win, based on the energy he saw on the campaign trail,” Breitbart reported.
Pence said he saw that same enthusiasm on the ground today that he did four years ago when all the polls were wrong.
“I think there is greater enthusiasm today than there was four years ago,” Pence added. “And I really believe it’s because who he is, what he’s done, and what he’s been willing to endure. He’s never stopped fighting.”
Pence gave the interview while flying back from Wisconsin, which was the state that saw one of the biggest polling misses in 2016.
In 2016 the final Real Clear Politics polling average Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump by 6.5 points.
However on Election Night, Trump carried Wisconsin by less than one point to become the first Republican to carry the Badger State since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Michigan also saw a similar polling meltdown.
That’s because in 2016 pollsters undersampled voters without college degrees.
Non-college educated voters make up the core of Donald Trump’s base and because pollsters didn’t sample enough of them they had no idea Donald Trump was going to beat Hillary Clinton.
Are pollsters making this mistake again?
Americans will have to wait until the election returns come in.
But Donald Trump consistently says his campaign’s polling paints a picture of a completely different race than the one the public polls are showing.
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