Like every Presidential election, the 2020 contest will come down to a handful of key battleground states.
And one state’s Electoral College votes stand out as the most prized in the entire country.
And Donald Trump’s jaw hit the floor when he got this stunning news about one key swing state.
Michigan going red was one of the big surprises in 2016.
Along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Michigan made up the famed “blue wall” of states that Democrats won in every Presidential Election dating back to 1992.
But Donald Trump’s outside campaign and “Make America Great Again” agenda on trade and immigration struck a chord with voters in the industrial Midwest in a way that George Bush and Mitt Romney’s managerial class establishment Republicanism never could.
Donald Trump won Michigan by about 10,000 votes and Democrats saw its 10 Electoral College votes as within their grasp in 2020.
And some prominent Republicans and members of Donald Trump’s campaign agree.
Michigan GOP Strategist Greg McNeilly told Politico in an interview that President Trump entered the 2020 race as the underdog in Michigan.
“It’ll be tough,” said Greg McNeilly, a veteran GOP strategist in Michigan. Though the president overcame tough odds in 2016, winning the state by 10,704 votes, or less than 1 point, McNeilly expects Democratic turnout to be stronger in 2020. “Trump is the underdog,” he said.
But some top Republicans in the Wolverine State disagree.
Michigan Republican strategist Jamie Roe told Politico in an exclusive interview that Donald Trump is stronger in counties he flipped to red – like Michigan’s famed Macomb County – than he was in 2016.
Trump, Roe argued, has built an enduring connection to blue-collar voters in areas like Macomb County, which the president won in 2016 after Barack Obama carried it four years earlier. The eastern Michigan county, long seen as a bellwether for the state, is the birthplace of so-called Reagan Democrats.
“I can tell you this: The president is stronger today than he was in 2016 in Macomb County,” said Roe, himself a Macomb resident. “I guarantee he will do better in Macomb County and I fully expect the president will be there before this campaign is over.”
Donald Trump losing Michigan by itself would not doom his campaign.
But voting patterns tend to bleed across states.
If Michigan sees any erosion in suburban support or increase in black turnout in urban areas, that will likely carry to Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin.
Losing all of those states would make Donald Trump a one term President.
But that result is not set in stone.
Democrats could nominate an unelectable candidate by virtue of a vicious primary that either drags the nominee too far to the left or hands the nomination to a candidate that doesn’t inspire the Democrat Party base.
Conservative Revival will keep you up to date on any new developments in this ongoing story.